Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
